In any eventuality, escalation would be difficult for either side to manage, and a fight over access to Taiwan could quickly degenerate into a general war.
Finally (and least likely) Taiwan might attempt to make its independence an accomplished fact, which most analysts believe would incur Chinese military intervention. Alternatively, tensions in other aspects of the US-China relationship might convince Beijing of the likelihood of a change in the US stance towards Taiwan, leading to a pre-emptive attack. China could launch a “bolt from the blue” attack designed to catch US and Taiwanese forces unawares. Some in Congress have now called for an end to this policy, and for more full-throated support of Taiwan’s international position.Ī war could begin in several different ways. This “strategic ambiguity” was designed to remove the incentive for Taiwan to declare independence while not giving China an excuse to invade. The United States maintained a studied ambiguity towards Taiwan for the past forty years as it developed a strong economic relationship with the People’s Republic of China.
The potential for miscalculation is immense. At the same time, China’s military remains untested, and an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait would constitute one of the most sophisticated military operations in history. Over the past year, long-simmering US concern over the Chinese threat to Taiwan has seemed to come to a boil.Ĭhinese military capabilities have grown rapidly over the past decade, and now constitute a major obstacle against US intervention.
The use of any of these tools, especially if they show some success on the ground, could lead to a confrontation between Moscow and Washington. This includes economic sanctions against Russia, cyberattacks against Russian infrastructure, the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, and the sharing of real-time intelligence with Ukrainian forces. However, the US can support Kyiv in several ways without direct intervention. Despite improvements in Ukrainian forces, most analysts expect that Russia would win quick victories along the border, potentially gaining access to the Ukrainian heartland.ĭirect Russian military action would put immense pressure on the United States to respond in some fashion. If Russia launches an invasion of Ukraine things could get ugly quickly. The United States and NATO have not responded positively to these overtures, but have notably failed to guarantee Ukraine’s security. Russia has publicly argued that it wants to resolve the issues of Ukraine and of Russia’s relationship with NATO on a permanent basis.
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